How schools in England can stay competitive as pupil numbers fall

Pupil numbers in England are in decline.

By 2030, there will be 400,000 fewer pupils (DfE) - but despite this drop, school funding is not expected to rise to address the gap. 

Meanwhile, SEND spend, teacher pay awards and compliance burdens continue to absorb an increasing share of education spending. While vital, these greater spends limits the scope for other increases to school budgets.[

What does this mean for school leaders... and what can they do about it?

Falling pupil numbers and rising costs

For the worst-hit schools, closure is already a risk. 

While secondary schools will be hit by effects of falling birth rates later, primary schools are already seeing a decline in pupil intake.

However, there is no time to waste for secondary schools if they wish to survive the pupil drop. Pupil numbers for secondary schools are expected to peak in 2026/2027 - after which they will begin facing the same issues that primaries are currently battling.

Location plays a part

The results of the decline are complex, but they are also remarkably simple: There are no longer enough pupils to go around.

Schools across England are affected by the changes, but how those changes manifest - and how quickly - differ by location. 

Inner-city schools are ground zero for declining pupils

Many inner-city schools, particularly in London, are already finding themselves in crisis because of the lack of pupils. London's councils have warned that funding for the city's schools could be slashed by £45m in the next four years, with some boroughs seeing double-digit drops in pupil percentages.

It's not just that the birth rates have fallen. It's also that families are moving out of London as house prices rise. But for schools, the impact is the same: fewer pupils, less funding.

Rural schools cannot afford to downscale

Many rural schools, particularly primaries, are already small - and they cannot afford to get smaller. Fixed costs for staff, maintenance and overheads cannot be cut or reallocated, but when per-pupil funding is reduced, rural schools find themselves in an impossible situation.

While larger schools may be able to offset the loss of funding by combining classes to allow for fewer teachers, this is rarely an option for small rural schools - which are often already single form entry.

Suburban and commuter belt schools are facing high competition

Suburban schools are seeing less dramatic changes to intake than inner-city or rural schools, but this is set to change as the gap allows families to become more picky.

While an area's most popular school absorbs all or most of the local families, the schools in second place, third place and beyond are set to find themselves struggling to remain afloat. 

That is, unless they get competitive.

And there are more ways for a school to stay competitive than high academic performance.

Making or breaking a school's reputation

In previous blog posts, we have discussed how Ofsted results, league tables and exam results may play a part in parental choice, but they are not the whole story. 

 Parents do not consistently apply to their most effective local school. Other factors influence [parents'] decision-making process.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Parents care about academic performance, but the data tells us that when it comes to choosing a school for their child, something else is influencing their decision.

The answer comes in the form of the UK's largest ever poll of parents, the Parent Voice Project.

When asked which factors influenced their decision when choosing a school, parents - regardless of demographic, location or type of school - agreed that after location, reputation mattered most to them.

A glance at the data above completes the story for us: reputation is almost twice as important to parents as Ofsted rating, and 238% more important than league tables and exam results.  

But what's behind "reputation" here? If it isn't Ofsted rating, league tables or exam results, what exactly gives a school a good reputation in the eyes of parents?

Perhaps reputation is being formed by what family members who also have children think?

However, eagle-eyed readers will have noticed that "recommendations from family or good friends" has its own entry on the chart above, with 24% of parents saying that influences them - almost half of those who care about reputation.

What, then, creates a good reputation?

The power of happy parents

Friends and family are not the only people parents look to for opinion of a school. 

Declining birth rates mean that for many parents, other people with similarly aged children are in short supply in their own circle of friends. When looking for a range of opinions on local schools, a parent might be lucky if they have even one or two friends or family members to ask for recent, relevant experiences. 

But that doesn't mean that they won't ask parents that are outside of their circle of friends.

Parents are increasingly turning to online reviews and word-of-mouth for advice on schools (Good Schools Guide). 

And like declining pupil numbers, this trend isn't going away: Gen Z are the most likely generation of parents to use online forums and groups to help them choose a school for their children.

Local authority websites, which hold school exam data and information such as catchment distances in previous years, are barely used by Gen Z parents. Just 13 per cent of this age group said they used councils’ sites for research, but 33 per cent had turned to parenting forums for help in choosing a school.

The Times

For schools, the next steps are clear. To impress prospective parents, they need to impress current parents. 

Behind the data, the story is surprisingly simple: The everyday parent experience is what creates happy parents. And happy parents are what maximises pupil intake. Schools can no longer rely on demographics alone to sustain demand - to survive, they must focus on reputation.

Does the way you communicate with parents satisfy Ofsted standards? The new framework has changed how schools are expected to communicate: we dive into the details here.