Falling school rolls are hitting MATs hard - here's what Trust leaders need to know

 The declining pupil crisis is well documented. 

And many Multi-Academy Trusts are being squeezed by the need to fill school places.

According to the Confederation of School Trusts, 80% of CEOs of Trusts with more than 20 schools flagged falling rolls as an immediate financial risk, compared with 26% of CEOs of Single-Academy Trusts.

Falling pupil numbers cut funding at school level. In a trust, that pressure adds up quickly. Several schools can be hit at once, just as the central budget they rely on is shrinking. The result is simple: more schools need support, and there’s less capacity to give it.

As the education sector's canary in the coal mine, London has seen the biggest declines in pupil intake - but insights from London's schools could be the answer Trust CEOs are looking for.

In the last five years, over 90 London primary and secondary schools have merged or closed due to low enrolments. And the surviving schools are barely hanging on: a recent  London Councils study found most maintained schools are either in deficit or operating on less than 8% of their budget. There is no cushion for further pupil losses.

Inner London has been the hardest hit, with demand for year 7 places expected to fall by 7.6% over the next four years, while reception places decline by 6.4%.

The predicted decline equates to £15 million in funding cuts for London's primary schools and £30 million for secondary schools.

The London schools that have escaped mergers or closure have achieved it at a cost: reducing their budgets with staff cuts and reductions in activities, trips and even GSCE options.

London was just the beginning for declining pupil numbers

But London was just the beginning. Schools across England are now reporting that the declining pupil numbers crisis is hitting them too.

A recent Schools Week article illustrated the trend in just a few succinct examples from up and down the country:

Last year Hackforth and Hornby Primary School in North Yorkshire shut after it shrank to just eight pupils.

Snape Wood Primary in Nottingham will shut this autumn after its unfilled capacity rose to 42 per cent, while Hertfordshire County Council is consulting on closing two primaries.

But the real takeaway from Schools Week can be found a little deeper in the article:

Parental choice can exacerbate the situation. Declining numbers mean the most popular local schools are less likely to be oversubscribed.

For Trust CEOs, the message is clear: schools need to become the first choice to survive. 

What can we learn from London's closed schools?

Demographic shrinkage is not going away. Waiting to see "if it happens here" is not a strategy: schools must be ready to weather the storm.

Some of London's most vulnerable schools are (or were) affected by issues out of their control. Factors like location and local birth rate are out of a school leader's control - but the story doesn't end there.

Some of England's most oversubscribed schools are based in London, with schools from Newham, Redbridge and Croydon making the top 20. MATs like the Big Education Trust and E-ACT boast multiple entries in England's most oversubscribed schools rankings.

Why do some schools thrive while others struggle to survive? To understand the gap, we need to look at the data.

The way parents think about schools is changing.

33% of Gen Z parents say they now turn to parenting forums for advice from other parents on the school their child should attend (Good Schools Guide, 2025). 

Other surveys have revealed that parents do not prioritise Ofsted reports when picking their child's school. In fact, Ofsted reports do not even make the top five factors parents consider, below location, reputation, ease of travel, the child's preference and impressions from visits and open days (Parent Voice Project, 2026).

Word-of-mouth is king, and Trusts whose current parents are unsatisfied are feeling the pinch. A weak school brand is bad news for a single school - but it's worse news for a Trust that school belongs to, running the risk of reducing the Trust's entire reputation.

In practice, pupil numbers are increasingly shaped by how a Trust is talked about, not how it is judged on paper. 

Reputation is no longer a school-level asset: it is a Trust-wide liability or advantage, amplified through every parent interaction and every local conversation.

Declining pupil numbers are not a foregone conclusion. Take a look at our deep dive into how to promote your Trust to parents.